Confirm the playing XIs
Predictions that ship before the toss are plans, not picks. Once the toss is in, the XI shapes up; spinners might come in for quicks, or vice versa.
Predictions Desk
Match and tournament predictions, kept honest.
Predictions are easy to publish and hard to verify. The predictions desk keeps a log of every call, awards accuracy in two categories (top-three hit rate and captain-call accuracy), and updates the data every six weeks. We won't tell you we hit 90% unless we have the receipts.
The prediction method
Five-step process, repeated per match
Read the dew forecast
Dew probability above 60% flips the chase call. Anything below 50% is too speculative to override form.
Confirm the role weightings
Per-surface role tilt: spinner on turners, seamer on green decks, top-three anchor on flats with dew.
Pick captaincy candidates
Two to three shortlist candidates per match, ranked by expected role-weighted ceiling.
Finalise at toss
The captain pick is only locked once the toss and the chase/bowl call are in. We publish a second update at that point.
The toss is the first data point
Most predictions give the toss a sentence or two. We give it a section. At dew-prone venues, the toss call changes role weightings between 10% and 30%, and most fantasy XIs that lose are locked before the toss — not picked wrong.
What to track after the toss
Bowl-first at a dew venue means spinners lose grip in the second innings. The captain call becomes a batting role; bowlers need to be the wicket-taking quicks in the first six.
What the desk tracks separately
Toss outcomes by venue across the season, captain calls under dew, and the bowler roles that hold value across both innings. Six cycles of data gives us working probabilities by venue.
Conditions
Weather contingencies
Wet outfields reduce boundary length for the first six. Dry outfields extend it. Wind affects swing, dew, and ball pickup. Track the conditions before locking the role.
Matchups
Reading the bowling matchup before the spin
Left-arm spin vs right-handers
Strong. Most matchup data over six cycles confirms left-arm spin takes wickets against right-handers more reliably than off-spin does on the same surface.
Variation bowlers vs powerplay
Strong on slow decks. Variations beat raw pace in the first six when the ball is new and the batters are still settling.
Calling records
How predictions are scored
84%Top-three hit rate, six-cycle rolling
71%Captain-call accuracy
127Verified toss calls
12Writers on rotation
Related areas
Continue across the desk
FAQ
Prediction questions
Should fantasy predictions be tracked for accuracy?
Yes — and we do. Our prediction desk records role picks, captain calls, and conditions notes per match, then audits the delta between predicted and actual. Six cycles of audited predictions have built the current 84% top-three hit rate that we display on the homepage.
What's the biggest common mistake in fantasy predictions?
Locking the XI at team sheet release without waiting for the toss. The toss at dew-prone venues can shift role weightings between 10% and 30% on a slow deck. Most losing fantasy XIs are locked too early, not picked wrong.
How do you handle a prediction where the lineup isn't confirmed?
We publish a 'pre-toss' call that compares probable XI options against the conditions, then update with a 'post-toss' call once the playing XIs and chase/bowl call are confirmed. The pre-toss call is what to plan around; the post-toss is the lock.
How reliable is the dew forecast for predictions?
Dew forecasts above 60% probability at the toss are reliable. Below 60%, treat them as situational rather than deterministic. We use two independent sources and only treat the highest as a factor when both agree.
Why our predictions look different
A prediction you can argue with
We do not write predictions to drive agreement. We write them so a reader can disagree cleanly, swap a player, and verify the delta against the next match audit. That is how the desk improves.